By Naween A. Mangi

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan’s central bank Governor Syed Salim Raza said Asia’s highest interest rates will be gradually reduced this year, ruling out steep cuts that may fuel inflation.

“The risk of too sharp a cut is to convey the feeling that the battle against inflation has been won and unfortunately, that’s not true,” Raza said in an interview in Karachi yesterday. “Too sharp a cut would seem to be populist, premature or succumbing to pressure. I would err on the side of gradualism and do it in stages.”

State Bank of Pakistan raised borrowing costs five times in the past 18 months as inflation accelerated to a three-decade high and domestic political turmoil distracted the government. Gradual reductions may not be enough to revive the economy as the global recession curbs demand for Pakistan’s exports.

“Now is the time to be aggressive and cutting the policy rate by 200 basis points in April will be aggressive,” said Nasim Beg, who manages the equivalent of $118.6 million in stocks and bonds at Arif Habib Investments Ltd. in Karachi. “That’s what the economy needs.”

A widening rift between President Asif Ali Zardari and his former ally Nawaz Sharif is distracting the government from tackling the economic slowdown and deteriorating security.

Lawyers, backed by Sharif, began a four-day protest march on March 12, and plan to converge on the capital Islamabad on March 16. Political tensions flared last month when Sharif accused Zardari of backing a Supreme Court ruling that barred the former premier from running for public office.

Room to Cut

The Asian nation may have room to cut rates if inflation keeps slowing, the International Monetary Fund said last month. Foreign exchange reserves held by the central bank have risen to $6.6 billion on March 7 after falling to $3.5 billion in October.

“With things going in the right direction, the stage is set within the next couple of months for an opportunity to lower the rate,” Raza, who took over as governor in January, said.

While inflation has declined from a three-decade high reached in August, prices accelerated for the first time in four months in February as food costs rose.

The central bank predicts inflation may ease to 11 percent by June from 21.07 percent last month.

Former Governor Shamshad Akhtar increased the central bank’s discount rate to slow inflation and help shore up Pakistan’s foreign-exchange reserves. The country was forced to turn to the IMF for a $7.6 billion rescue package last year after its reserves shrank 75 percent in a year to $3.45 billion.

Higher borrowing costs have dented growth in the economy, which is predicted by the government to expand 2.5 percent this fiscal year to June 30, down from 5.8 percent last year.

“Monetary policy actions should be based on future expectations,” said Farid Khan, director at Credit Suisse Pakistan in Karachi. “Inflation will fall sharply and hence there is room for interest rate cuts this calendar year.”

Khan expects a reduction of up to one percentage point at the central bank’s next monetary-policy review in April and another cut by July. 

拉扎表示要降低利率來抵制通貨膨脹

作者： Naween A. Mangi

      3月14日（彭博 ）—— 巴基斯坦國(guó)國(guó)家銀行行長(zhǎng)賽義德薩利姆拉扎表示，亞洲今年將逐漸降低銀行利率，排除急劇下降的可能，可能助長(zhǎng)通貨膨脹。

       “冒著大幅度降價(jià)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是為了傳達(dá)戰(zhàn)勝通貨膨脹的信心，但是不幸的是，這是不可能的?！?/SPAN> 拉扎昨天在卡拉奇接受采訪時(shí)說，“太迅猛的一個(gè)降價(jià)似乎是某些人的想法，思想太不成熟或者被通貨膨脹屈服了。我曾經(jīng)在過于堅(jiān)持漸進(jìn)主義上面犯過錯(cuò)誤，我把他叫做階段性錯(cuò)誤?！?/SPAN>

      巴基斯坦國(guó)家銀行在過去的18個(gè)月五次上漲貸款利率，因?yàn)橥ㄘ浥蛎浡蔬_(dá)到了的三十年來的大值，并且國(guó)內(nèi)政治動(dòng)亂分散了政府的注意力。逐漸降低利率可能不足以促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，因?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)衰退抑制了需求，影響了巴基斯坦的出口額度。

       “現(xiàn)在有一個(gè)利好消息，今年4月政府可能發(fā)布政策，削減利率200個(gè)基點(diǎn)?！奔{西姆貝格說，他是阿里夫哈比比投資有限公司卡拉奇分公司的經(jīng)理，管理著價(jià)值1.186億美元的股票和債券。 “這個(gè)政策的發(fā)布是經(jīng)濟(jì)的需要?！?/SPAN>

總統(tǒng)阿西夫阿里扎爾達(dá)里和他的前盟友謝里夫之間的裂痕日益擴(kuò)大，導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)衰退，社會(huì)安全惡化，政府岌岌可危。

      支持里夫的律師，他們?cè)?/SPAN>3月12日開始為期4天的抗議游行，并計(jì)劃3月16日在首都伊斯蘭堡集中。政治緊張局勢(shì)的爆發(fā)是因?yàn)樯蟼€(gè)月高法院指責(zé)扎爾達(dá)里沙里夫，禁止前總理競(jìng)選公職的裁決。

      降息空間

      國(guó)際貨幣基金組織上個(gè)月表示，如果通貨膨脹繼續(xù)放緩，亞洲國(guó)家還有降息的可能。中央銀行外匯儲(chǔ)備3月7日上升到66億美元，而10月份低曾跌至35億美元。

      “隨著事態(tài)朝著正確的方向前進(jìn)，銀行利息在未來幾個(gè)月內(nèi)有降低的可能性，”拉扎，1月份新任銀行行長(zhǎng)。

而通貨膨脹率在8月份達(dá)到了30年來的高點(diǎn)，目前已經(jīng)下降。從 2月份食品價(jià)格上漲，接下來4個(gè)月，價(jià)格首次加速增長(zhǎng)。

      中央銀行預(yù)計(jì)通貨膨脹率會(huì)從7月的21.7%，降低到上月的11%。

      前總統(tǒng)沙姆沙德阿赫塔爾增加中央銀行的貼現(xiàn)率，在緩和通貨膨脹的同時(shí)幫助巴基斯坦增加外匯儲(chǔ)備。該國(guó)在求助于國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的76億美元的拯救計(jì)劃后，去年國(guó)家外匯儲(chǔ)備減少了75%，降到34.5億美元。

      借貸成本上升已經(jīng)影響了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，到6月30日，本財(cái)年度該國(guó)政府預(yù)測(cè)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率為2.5%，低于去年的5.8%。

       “貨幣政策應(yīng)基于對(duì)未來的期望”法里德汗說，巴基斯坦卡拉奇信貸公司的執(zhí)行董事。 “通貨膨脹率將會(huì)急劇下降，因此本年度會(huì)有降息的空間。 ” 

      央行下次于4月份的貨幣政策審查中，汗預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有一個(gè)多百分點(diǎn)的降息幅度，另一次降息會(huì)發(fā)生在7月。